Sandy Says: Not “Targeting” New York or Anywhere Else
My Monday morning picture from space
To be absolutely clear: I am not “targeting” New York City or anywhere else. I am pushed and pulled by temperature and pressure differences. My winds are powered by warm water and moisture. And there is enough heat and moisture for my winds to make 12-foot high waves over a 3 million sq km area – one third the size of the US.
CO2 concentrations for last 800,000 years
I don’t want to hurt anyone or cause any damage. I am simply nature’s pressure-relief valve, a way of re-distributing heat energy across the planet. But I’m not entirely natural. For hundreds of thousands of years the levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) averaged 270-280 parts per million (ppm) which trapped enough of the sun’s heat to keep the planet comfortably warm.
Today the CO2 concentration is measured at 390 ppm. That’s nearly 40 per cent more CO2 in the air to capture more heat from the sun. About 90 percent of this extra heat has gone into the oceans.
All this extra CO2 came from your burning coal, oil, and gas and cutting down most of the world’s forests (trees take CO2 from the air to grow). So it’s plain to see that I not entirely natural.
I am truly a hybrid storm: part nature; part human.
what a crock of ……..
storms are storms. they are NOT human.
Tink
29/10/2012 at 1:26 PM
I think what shes trying to say is that storms are a natural occurrence but humans can influence certain variables that effect how storms form and the frequency and intensity of them.
Vanessa
29/10/2012 at 1:50 PM
really Vanessa. How. tell us all how.
Tink
29/10/2012 at 2:04 PM
This post answers that question but If you actually want to know a bit more there are several variables that play into the formation of a storm:
- Sea level rise. This storm surge is coming on oceans that are higher than a few decades ago. Sea level is actually rising faster in the NYC area than in much of the rest of the world due to a variety of factors. (Sea level rise is not equal everywhere.)
-Warmer waters: Global warming isn’t just about surface air temperatures; indeed more than 90% of the extra energy due to greenhouse gases is going into the oceans. One of the consequences is that the very unusual spike in water temps off the NE coast at the moment (which are roughly 5ºC above average in many places) is made much more likely by rising ocean temperatures. Warmer waters help to feed the power of storms and Sandy is undoubtedly more powerful than it would have been if ocean temps had been closer to average.
- Arctic Oscillation Index. One of the reasons this storm is so unusual is its path. This has been significantly shaped by a very unusual high pressure system in Eastern Canada and the North Atlantic. The Arctic Oscillation Index measures patterns in the atmospheric pressure around the Arctic Ocean and this event is unusual enough to be more than three standard deviations away from the average (meaning that it occurs less than 0.2% of the time under standard conditions). Yet the loss of Arctic summer sea ice has been associated with a number of strange and uncommon patterns in Arctic atmospheric pressure by a few recent studies. The precise links seem to still being ironed out, but as massive areas that would normally be reflective ice were open water this summer, the chances of this not affecting the typical Arctic air circulation patterns are slim.
So, while it is too simplistic to say that global warming caused this storm, I think we can say with a high degree of confidence that climate change has shifted the conditions under which extreme events like this occur in ways that make them measurably worse.
Also, Tink, if you are confused about how heat or energy interact with pressure and volume I would suggest doing a little physics brush up or a course in it. I dont mean that in a flippant way either. A climate Change science course or basic earth system science course will shed light on a lot of these topics or terms. If you’re not going to do that then I suggest you put some trust into experts. Just like when you go to hospital for an emergency- you trust experts. You dont sit there asking them to fully explain every detail. The subject is too complicated to teach over a blog post BUT that doesn’t mean you cant do some schooling over a blog post. We can’t all be experts in everything. A little humility goes a long way.
thanks to EthicsEdinburgh for variable information!
Vanessa
29/10/2012 at 2:43 PM
sea level rise? given that the current rise is approximately 2 mm/year 2 decades would be a measly 1.57 inches. more important for this cat 1 hurricane is that it is coinciding with a full moon thus high tides.
trust what experts? I trust DATA.
Tink
29/10/2012 at 3:38 PM
The real world is not global averages, as someone familiar with DATA should know. Sea level rise is 3x faster on the Atlantic NE according to your fellow geologists at U.S. Geological Survey.
Stephen
24/12/2012 at 3:38 PM
Fantastic blog. Keep the CC science lessons coming.
Vanessa
29/10/2012 at 1:30 PM
Great explanation of the impact of man-made climate change on weather patterns. Much like the fact-filled and easy to read ” Global Warming for Dummies. But as this is a super storm, perhaps you need to write “Climate Change for Super Dummies?”
Mandy Johnson
29/10/2012 at 2:42 PM
since when is a cat 1 hurricane a super storm? BTW, insults negate any credibility you had to begin with.
Tink
29/10/2012 at 3:25 PM
Wind Speed isnt the only factor. Tink, how about you read the detailed comment I wrote you.
The better question here is why DONT you believe in Climate Change? What is your credibility here?
FYI tink- I grew up in FLA- 20+ YEARS. Been through hurricane Andrew.
I’m now living in DT Manhattan. I can surely say that this is a huge storm.
Vanessa
29/10/2012 at 3:41 PM
I know and I did. You aren’t the only one here who has lived thru a hurricane.
Ahhh, so now it’s down to my credibility because I don’t “believe” in the hype? I’m a degreed geologist. so?
go ahead and correlate CO2 and Oct hurricane landfalls.
Tink
29/10/2012 at 3:56 PM
No one has ever said CO2 has anything to do with landfalls… to even put that out there is absurd. And so there’s not much point engaging w you.
Stephen
24/12/2012 at 3:33 PM
http://www.livescience.com/21158-sea-level-rise-northeast-coast.html
ok tink: Remember to cite your sources (try to look at many/varied/credible sources) when giving data.
Also remember that you’re not a climatologist (this is obvious-also not flippant comment. Not too many people are-its kiiiinda hard). It sounds like youd like to have more credibility or power in your argument-right now its flimsy, I highly rec taking a few science based classes if this is something you’re actually interested in. If you’re just into arguing then continue on your journey. As for me: I’m out. If you’re in NE good luck with preparations and stay safe.
baieeeee
Vanessa
29/10/2012 at 4:04 PM
Wrong again. According to the Swiss Re report, “Natural and man-made catastrophes in 2012,” the top five insured loss events are all in the U.S.
“Hurricane Sandy is the largest Atlantic hurricane on record in terms of wind span. This record storm surge caused widespread flooding and damage to a densely populated area on the East Coast of the U.S. It also led to the worst power outage caused by a natural catastrophe in the history of the U.S.”
Stephen
24/12/2012 at 3:42 PM
great blog. might apply it to other things like tar sands and coal mining.
I would love to see the left end of the CO@ graph extrapolated till when levels where similar also. That would be informative…
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Climate-Portals/139434822741700
pmagn (@pmagn)
31/10/2012 at 11:36 AM